The British residential property market has experienced a rise in house prices significantly above base rate inflation over the past few years (beginning around 2000/1).
House price inflation reached rates of 20 per cent per annum, but now seems to have slowed. The total shortage of housing is estimated at 2–3 million homes, with the shortage rising by 100,000 homes per year due to the fall in the average household size from 3.2 in the 1960s to 2.2 now [due to a long term trend of fewer occupants per dwelling], immigration and population movement from the North to the South of England.
The housing crisis
The housing crisis has caused the British Government to launch two reviews of the housing market, due to dramatic market failure (only 134,000 new builds for more than 230,000 household formations per year, and rising), the Barker Report (supply issues and what can be done to increase flexibility in the market) and the Miles Report (the UK mortgage industry and how it can be made more long-term).
Widespread disillusionment with property prices has recently led to the formation of political campaigns such as Priced Out aiming to pressure the government into taking action on the affordability issues particularly for the under 40’s. It is estimated that high house prices depress birth-rates through preventing couples from becoming cohabiting in their own home.
There has been dramatic inflation in house prices both in regional terms (London has seen much inflation in 2006 and 2007, whilst the North of England and Scotland have also seen dramatic inflation during this period) as well as affordability issues for over 50% of the population (from the Highlands of Scotland, where second-home buyers have nearly priced the local population out of the market) to the South and Southwest.
In Japan an equivalent housing bubble between 1984 and 1990, led to a 10 year recession, as high house price inflation ‘crowded out’ all other forms of expenditure, and the bubble eventually burst causing a dramatic house price crash. In real terms house prices in Japan in June 2007 are still below those in 1990, some 17 years prior. As of 2006 and 2007 housing bubbles are being experienced in the USA and Spain, where there is now a crash and the beginnings of a crash, respectively. High levels of demand at high prices are not sustainable in housing due to the affordability constraint.
The figure of 134,000 built in 2002 is contradicted by the National House-Builder Council which quotes there were 160,800 homes built in 2002. In 2006 they quote 185,000, which is above the original Barker report estimate of 179,000 household formations a year. There appears to be little statistical evidence to support the claims of that a fall in number of new homes built is the cause of the house prices rises. For example, in the 1990s an average of 158,910 houses were built each year (NHBC figures) against 172,000 for each of the five years to 2006. Prices at the end of the 1990s, when adjusted for inflation, were less than at the start of 1990, whereas prices between Q4 2001 and Q4 2006 increased 60%, again when adjusted for inflation (figures from the Nationwide Building Society’s house price data: ). House prices at the end of 2006 were 35% above the trend prices of the last 30 years.
Increased divorce rate is another often quoted reason for increasing house prices, but this metric peaked in 1993 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=170 - a year of static or falling prices.
There is more evidence that Buy-to-Let has created a shortage in houses to buy than there is for high levels of homelessness. In 1990s Buy-to-Let accounted for about 1% of loans taken out for the purposes of buying a house. In 2006, the 330,000 buy-to-let mortgages that were taken out accounted for 9% of outstanding home loans (Council of Mortgage Lenders http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/1112).
Causes
The Housing Act 1980 introduced the right to buy of long term tenants in council housing to purchase their homes. As a direct consequence private home ownership in the UK grew from 55% in 1980 to 67% in 1990 and 2.1 million properties in private hands. A condition of the act was that if the new owner sold the property within five years they paid back a proportion of the capital gain. A discounted council property purchased in 1987 for £12,000 could be valued at 5 times that in 1992. As a result an amount of latent equity rapidly built up. The recession of the early 1990s slowed this market but by 1995 when the tie-in period for most ‘right to buyers’ had expired a large number of new buyers rapidly moved into the open property market. In 1997 the Labour Government ended the discount in London and parts of South East England increasing the pressure on prices. In 2001 a new law empowered local authorities to transfer their remaining housing stock to private corporations for redevelopment forcing a further upward pressure on prices.
Demand for property measured by household formation has soared due to an ageing population (the death rate has fallen resulting in fewer houses being released each year), divorce and single-parenthood, and high levels of net immigration (estimated at between 250,000 and 400,000 over each of the ten years between 1997 and 2007) according to details from the Office for National Statistics. Immigration is also important to the construction industry as a source of labour.
With buy to lets also beginning to take up a larger section of property, this is having an artificial effect as well as new developments being produced and specifically designed for high earning executives in places where very few exist.
Another alleged cause of the housing crisis is the system introduced in 1947 under the Town and Country Planning Act. This created ‘planning departments’ and greenbelts which have barred housebuilding around major cities in the UK. Combined with the introductions of National Parks, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, and Conservation Areas, there are effective bars on housebuilding on the most undeveloped land in the UK in 2007.
In 2007 there are cross-party calls to abolish planning departments at both local and regional levels to resolve the crisis.
Nationwide, buy-to-let investors are a major contributor to house-price inflation, but there remains the simple problem that insufficient housing stock is built as compared to household formation. Areas with low density and rural areas are having a harder time dealing with the present housing crisis, as simply building more houses is impossible due to the planning system.
The Solution
The Barker Report[1] proposed solution to the problems faced in 2006 is to :
- dramatically increase housebuilding to clear the backlog of 2-3 million missing homes in late 2006.
while proposed mechanisms to achieve this include
- abolishing planning departments and greenbelt designations,
- re-introducing controls on immigration to bring net immigration down to as low as possible (ideally ensuring no more population increase in the UK).
It has been stated that 2 million new homes are needed over the 5 years to 2012 just to clear most of the existing shortage of homes.
Housepricecrash.com [2] is another major campaign portal for analysing the Housing Bubble, Housing Crisis and Possible Solutions.
Aside from possible intervention by the government, the situation may resolve itself. Previous cyclical peaks in prices and affordability have been followed either by a price correction (1990s) or stagnation (1970s) while inflation raises income.
Debate
The affordability of British housing is seen as an important factor in keeping inflation under control.
Residential property prices in Britain have risen dramatically between 1996 and 2005. Many commentators (property bears) believe that in part this is not due to economic reasons but to a bubble mentality among speculators ; other commentators (property bulls) claim that the rise in prices is a rational reaction to the low housing supply and moderate employment (unemployment is only 2.8 million using overall figures including incapacity benefit claimants).
The unprecedented price levels http://www.pricedout.org.uk/Articles/JustHowUnaffordableAreHousePrices/tabid/99/Default.aspx have excluded record levels of first time buyers from buying http://www.pricedout.org.uk/Articles/StatisticsJan2006/tabid/69/Default.aspx and are preventing many more buyers from being able to trade up.
House prices have risen most rapidly in Northern Ireland, where the average price now exceeds that of Great Britain. Here, in particular, the gap between average earnings and house prices, and between rental incomes and house prices, has been acute. In the mainland, there has also been rapid relative divergence in property prices between London and South East England compared to the other English regions, deepening the ‘North/South divide’ as skilled professionals from the South are increasingly unwilling to move to other areas in the knowledge they will be unable to afford to move back.
Targets for housebuilding have been set at 2 million new homes needed between 2006 and 2012.
Affordability ratios
A number of ratios have been developed to judge the sustainability of house prices.
- Proportion of Average Income. The long term average ratio of average house prices to average annual incomes has been 3.5:1. In 2005 the ratio was around 6:1 - leading many leading analysts to state that house prices were overvalued by approximately 40%. A further report from Home.co.uk in 2006,http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_SEP06.pdf comparing average asking prices with average incomes, has shown the UK average ratio to be as high as 10:1.
- New Mortgage Cover. This is the ability of a person on an average wage to cover a mortgage for a “first time buyer” property. In 2007 this was around 41% and rising of post tax income, and was 19% in 1995.
- Comparable Large Purchases. House Prices are often compared to the cost of other large consumer purchases (often new cars). This is more inexact, because of qualitative changes in many of these other purchases, but indications are that a house is now more highly priced in comparison to other consumer goods.
- Rental Yield After Mortgage Interest. This is the market rent for a property, subtracting mortgage interest, and divided by its price, or the average market rent after mortgage interest divided by the average house price. Due to buy to let speculation, this has become a used measure. This is now a negative percentage in much of the UK (to buy a house on a mortgage to rent out, will lose money after all costs are taken into account including void periods - thus there is no positive % yield). Many commentators believe a ‘risk factoring percentage’ must also be deducted from this figure, making it lower still. In much of London such yields have become a negative and are around approximately -4% in June 2007. Economic theory predicts that where negative yields after mortgage interest occur, either house prices must fall or rents must rise.
History
British property prices experienced sharp rises in the late 1980s due to excess demand as the bubble mentality took a grip. Property prices fell by 30% in real terms (though nominal decreases were smaller) through the early nineties due to a lack of affordability and higher interest rates. There was an increase in property repossessions by banks and building societies, and many people were left in negative equity for a number of years.
Prices started to recover in 1996, slowly at first and in some limited areas. By 2001 prices had in most places returned to their pre-correction levels, and continued to rise, so much so that in 2004 many properties were “worth” double their market price only three years before. In many cases prices were increasing by 20% per year (1.5% per month).
Prices saw a cooling in 2005 that led some forecasters to predict a sharp correction in the market, that might have reduced house prices by as much as 40%. However, an admitted error http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/2007/06/the_banks_worst_decision.html on the part of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, led it to cut interest rates in August 2005. This stimulated house-price inflation. This renewed house price inflation in late 2005 continued throughout 2006 and early 2007.
There are strong parallels between the late 1980’s and 2007. As of June 2007 repossessions are at the highest levels ever recorded in the UK, with a similar figure for bankruptcies. House prices are at an all time high in both nominal and real terms, and the house prices to incomes ratios is the highest ever recorded. It is estimated that 50% of all repossessions are from buy-to-let property investors. Restoring prices to the long-term average would require a 50% fall in house prices over the next few years.
In world markets, house price crashes are being experienced in the USA and Spain, while falling rents in the UK may lead to a reduction in property prices in the UK. Japan experienced the biggest ever house price bubble and crash to date. House prices in Japan today are still below the average for 1990, some 17 years before. The current house price bubble in the UK is nearly as big as that of Japan in 1990.
With sub-prime mortgages taking up a larger part of the mortgages in UK property, higher interest rates could cause these to foreclose and provide a flood of cheap property, artificially collapsing the market and making buy-to-let purchases worthless so reducing the supply and demand problem. Reports after the sub-prime crisis show prices falling. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=425220&in_page_id=57&ct=5
Homes worth more than £1 million
Halifax estimates that in 2007 there are 88,000 homes valued at more than £1 million in England and Wales, up from 30,000 in 2002. In London, million pound sales are centred on Kensington and Chelsea. There are other clusters around Cobham, Esher and Weybridge in Surrey and around Altrincham, Macclesfield and Wilmslow in Cheshire”.
References
See also
- Gazump
- Real estate economics
- Home Information Pack
- Stamp duty land tax
- Energy efficiency in British housing
External links
Government Reports/Responses
- Barker Review of Housebuilding Supply – March 2004
- Barker Review of Land Use Planning – late 2006
- Callcutt Review of Housebuilding Delivery – due to report in November 2007
- Office of Fair Trading market study into housebuilding in the UK due to report Summer 2008
Other
- UK House prices since 1952 – Spreadsheet file from Nationwide Building Society
- GlobalHousePriceCrash.com – Discussion forum on global House Prices
- HousePriceCrash.co.uk – Discussion forum on UK House Prices
- This is Money – Daily Mail house prices news
- Priced Out Campaign for Affordable House Prices
- HousePriceDebate.co.uk – ‘Discuss & Research’ engine for UK House Prices
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